U.S. Presidential '08: A brief analysis of the vote and a say to prospects
Ninni Radicini
New Horizons - Periodic information and analysis of Italy of Values \u200b\u200b
November 30, 2008 Barack Obama's victory was marked by significant political developments and election results . The new president, former Democratic senator from Illinois, won 66.8 million votes (53%, 365 electoral votes), compared with 58.3 million (46%; 173) John McCain, Republican senator from Arizona. Obama prevailed in 28 states, McCain in 22. An important finding is the localization of the vote: the one for Obama in the West and North East, but McCain won the South except Florida, and west-central area, except Colorado and New Mexico. Among the effects, the overcoming of the Republican electorate distrust of the South - white, working-class, autonomy - for McCain, so as to converge on him more votes than Bush. And if in Virginia and North Carolina, Obama won is to be noted here that only got 1 / 3 of the votes of whites. In the three states lost by McCain was decisive step field electorate Latin hispanica, whose growth is such that it is likely that in a few years Texas and Arizona - traditionally "red" (Republican) - could become "blue" (Democrat).
polls, especially exit the pool, were confirmed by the result thanks to innovations in detection mode, in particular the reduction of the questionnaire and the use of interviewers with an average age higher, to facilitate ' approach to elderly voters. Despite this, half the people approached declined to answer a higher number than in years past. The generalized forecast pro-Obama, however, was to be seen as an advantage from 88 polls for the candidate democratic, and not always confirmed. There was also the precedent of the primaries in Nevada, where Obama was ahead 10 points given up Hillary Clinton, then winning with +9. Another unknown factor was the margin of error of 4%, which has placed 12 countries (1 / 4 of total) among those "in the balance".
This did not affect the benefit of Obama, by virtue of the almost certainty of victory in California (55 electoral votes), New York (31), Pennsylvania (21), plus the advantage in Florida (27). Four states that together allocate nearly half of the 270 votes needed for election. Considering the last 10 presidential elections, when the defeat of Republicans in California is not surprising (not win 88) most poignant are those in Colorado (the Democrats had won only in '92 with Clinton), North Carolina and Indiana. Now the two sides open to different phases. For the Democrats to choose the line of government. Nancy Pelosi (D-California), Speaker of the House of Representatives, said that the Presidency is exercised by governing from the center.
address that is reflected in the choice of various personalities of Clinton for the executive area, as well as in the decision of the Democrats in the Senate to maintain a relationship with Joe Lieberman, the Connecticut senator, despite his support for McCain. Already running mate in 2000 with Al Gore, Lieberman is quell'elettorato Democrats tend to be conservative, for example, has proved significant in supporting Hillary Clinton in the primaries. In this direction should be interpreted her encounter with Obama with McCain, after which there was talk of bipartisan alliance. Although there are a few examples of reference, as in 1940 the support of Republican presidential candidate Wendell Willkie's foreign policy election rival Franklin D. Roosevelt and the progressive half of the 60 Republicans in the Civil Rights Act sponsored by Democratic President Johnson, the current one seems to converge more strategic than tactical.
Despite the clear majority in both houses of Congress (the Senate 58-40, 255-175 in the House), the Democrats aim precisely to avoid what happened in the past. The last two times they checked everything - the White House, House, Senate - were too unbalanced to the left, setting the stage for the victories of Ronald Reagan and Newt Gingrich in 80 in 1994. Among the Republicans meanwhile have already begun maneuvering for the next elections. Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, surprise winner of the primaries in Iowa in January and then in the South, proved to be the most insidious competitor for McCain. In his view a major cause of defeat was the choice of McCain to back the government loan of 700 billion dollars to combat the financial crisis. "The last thing Republicans want the Republicans is a measure that gives public money to private companies. "Huckabee said.
Sarah Palin, vice-president candidate and governor of Alaska, despite the friction with the election staff and the criticism of those who have likened it to Barry Goldwater, has already launched the '12 presidential race. Another important name is Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts. Several party leaders would have preferred him to Palin, the experience in business sector. And 'considered able to attract moderate and independent vote, from the primary, not just that of the base. The next election is in 2010 the mid-term elections for Congress.
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